DETLions
7-3
9
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph
34
NEPatriots
8-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
3
0
3
9
Patriots
7
17
3
7
34
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
439
Total Plays
73
73
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.24
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
18/46(39%)
38/53(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.17
Rushing Yards
91
90
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
29
Passing 1st downs
12
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.57
-4.46
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-4.03
--
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
54
89
Penalty EPA
-8.85
-5.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
24
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
28
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
8
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Patriots Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
4
10
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
17
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U