DETLions
3-3
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
6 mph
31
OAKRaiders
3-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
3
7
24
Raiders
7
10
0
14
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
473
450
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
7.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.18
Passing Yards
383
279
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.39
Rushing Yards
90
171
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
45%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.76
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-23
-10
Sack EPA
-3.54
-1.94
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
96
Penalty EPA
-5.13
-8.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.8
Time Adj
+9.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+18.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
32
RZ Efficiency
12
31
Raiders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
26
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
21
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U