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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ raiders week 9, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-3
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
6 mph
31
OAKRaiders
3-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
3
7
24
Raiders
7
10
0
14
31

Spread

OAK logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
473
450
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
7.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.18
Passing Yards
383
279
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.39
Rushing Yards
90
171
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
45%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.76
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-23
-10
Sack EPA
-3.54
-1.94
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
96
Penalty EPA
-5.13
-8.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+78.7
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.0
Time Adj
+9.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+18.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
12/16
4.1
75
12/23
-4.4
21
12/30
2.1
62
09/08
6.4
88
09/15
1.1
62
09/22
-1.4
43
09/29
3.0
72
10/14
-2.8
33
10/20
7.5
92
10/27
2.7
70
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Value
Ptile
12/16
-4.7
19
12/24
-1.8
34
12/30
-6.8
10
09/09
5.1
84
09/15
-5.5
17
09/22
0.5
55
09/29
0.5
55
10/06
3.8
77
10/20
4.9
83
10/27
4.1
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Raiders Defense
Lions logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6

EPA

EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
27
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
32
RZ Efficiency
12
31
Raiders Offense vs Lions Defense
Raiders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
24
26
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21

EPA

EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
21
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
22
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-1
L
W
U
12/23
-18
L
L
U
12/30
31
W
W
U
09/08
0
T
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-4
L
W
O
10/14
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-12
L
L
O
10/27
5
W
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-14
L
L
P
12/24
13
W
W
U
12/30
-32
L
L
U
09/09
8
W
W
U
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
W
U