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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ raiders week 15, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
8-5
28
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
50°F
1 mph
27
OAKRaiders
7-6
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
50°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
0
14
28
Raiders
7
10
0
4
21

Spread

OAK logo
+3

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
432
477
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
5.9
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.13
Passing Yards
375
345
Comp/Att
29/52(56%)
32/40(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.15
Rushing Yards
57
132
Rush Attempts
19
22
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
47%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.88
-2.05
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-7.69
-1.74
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
72
86
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-2.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
-25.2
Final Difference
-0.7
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Value
Ptile
10/02
-0.1
51
10/10
1.2
62
10/16
-0.2
50
10/23
-5.0
19
10/30
6.2
87
11/13
-7.4
8
11/20
7.8
93
11/24
1.6
63
12/04
3.6
75
12/11
-1.6
39
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
12/12
-7.0
10
12/19
-0.1
49
12/26
10.8
98
01/02
3.8
75
11/06
-2.4
34
11/10
2.8
71
11/20
-1.2
43
11/27
-4.0
24
12/04
-1.1
44
12/11
-5.6
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Raiders Defense
Lions logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27

EPA

EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
14
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Raiders Offense vs Lions Defense
Raiders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25

EPA

EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
8
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
17
Interceptions / Game
27
8
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
23
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
35
W
W
O
11/13
-24
L
L
O
11/20
14
W
W
O
11/24
-12
L
L
U
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-12
L
L
U
10/09
5
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/23
-28
L
L
U
11/06
-14
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/27
5
W
W
O
12/04
-20
L
L
O
12/11
-30
L
L
O