DETLions
8-5
28
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
50°F
1 mph
27
OAKRaiders
7-6
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
50°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
0
14
28
Raiders
7
10
0
4
21
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
477
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
5.9
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.13
Passing Yards
375
345
Comp/Att
29/52(56%)
32/40(80%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.15
Rushing Yards
57
132
Rush Attempts
19
22
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
47%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.88
-2.05
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-7.69
-1.74
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
72
86
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-2.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model49.8%
Spread Pick
Raiders+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
-23.9
Final Difference
1.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
3
23
Raiders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
17
Interceptions / Game
27
8
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U