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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ rams week 14, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
4-8
14
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
21
LARRams
4-8
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
7
7
14
Rams
0
1
7
7
15

Spread

LAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
331
317
Total Plays
70
52
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
220
114
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.16
Rushing Yards
111
203
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
5.5
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.22
-1.34
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-10
Sack EPA
-5.34
-2.76
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
45
48
Penalty EPA
-4.19
-6.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.9
Net QB Adjustment
-74.0
Home QB Adjustment
-56.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
-44.0
Final Difference
-28.7
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
-2.5
33
10/05
1.3
60
10/11
-5.8
12
10/18
9.1
96
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
-8.2
4
11/15
2.0
65
11/22
1.0
56
11/26
10.7
97
12/03
1.9
64
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-56.7
Value
Ptile
11/03
8.7
93
11/10
0.7
55
11/17
-5.1
19
11/24
-7.3
10
12/01
-0.3
48
12/05
-3.3
29
12/15
-11.3
2
12/21
-4.6
22
12/28
0.7
54
11/22
-5.0
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Lions logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
21

EPA

EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
19
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Rams logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20

EPA

EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
24
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
9
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
21
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-12
L
L
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-25
L
L
O
10/18
3
W
L
O
10/25
-9
L
L
O
11/01
-35
L
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/26
31
W
W
O
12/03
-4
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-6
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
O
10/11
-14
L
L
U
10/25
18
W
W
U
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
P
U
11/29
-24
L
L
U
12/06
-24
L
L
U