DETLions
4-8
14
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
021
LARRams
4-8
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
7
7
14
Rams
0
1
7
7
15
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
317
Total Plays
70
52
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
220
114
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.16
Rushing Yards
111
203
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
5.5
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.22
-1.34
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-10
Sack EPA
-5.34
-2.76
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
45
48
Penalty EPA
-4.19
-6.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.8%
Spread Pick
Rams+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-74.0
Home QB Adjustment
-56.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
-49.0
Final Difference
-33.7
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-56.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
21
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
19
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Rams Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
24
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
9
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U