DETLions
2-10
3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
3 mph
48
BALRavens
6-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
0
0
3
Ravens
3
17
21
7
48
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
548
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
3.4
8.7
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.41
Passing Yards
126
--
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.30
Rushing Yards
103
308
Rush Attempts
32
40
Yards / Rush
3.2
7.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.41
-3.99
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.36
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-5.39
-5.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model90.5%
Spread Pick
Ravens-14.0
Expected Value
+15.6%
Cover Probability
57.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+435
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,251
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-30.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
390.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
D. Culpepper
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-30.8
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
2
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
10
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
14
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
4
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
24
29
RZ Efficiency
15
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U