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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ saints week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
-
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
45
NOSaints
-
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
11
0
21
Saints
14
14
10
7
45

Spread

NO logo
-14

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
231
515
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
4.0
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.11
Passing Yards
198
--
Comp/Att
16/37(43%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.72
Rushing Yards
33
157
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
1.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
21%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.44
-14.24
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.01
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
80
36
Penalty EPA
-17.67
-9.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model85.6%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
+39.4
Final Difference
310.0
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
No recent game data available
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
10/19
-2.3
32
10/26
9.0
96
11/09
1.4
61
11/16
2.7
70
11/24
12.3
99
11/30
-0.7
47
12/07
3.1
73
12/11
-1.1
44
12/21
9.1
96
12/28
8.0
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Lions logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
26
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
25
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
24
3
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Saints logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
7
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
4
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-8
L
L
P
11/02
-4
L
W
P
11/09
-24
L
L
P
11/16
-9
L
W
P
11/23
-18
L
L
P
11/27
-37
L
L
P
12/07
-4
L
W
P
12/14
-10
L
W
P
12/21
-35
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
W
P
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-23
L
L
P
10/26
5
W
W
P
11/09
-14
L
L
P
11/16
10
W
W
P
11/24
22
W
W
P
11/30
-3
L
W
P
12/07
4
W
W
P
12/11
-3
L
P
P
12/21
35
W
W
P
12/28
-2
L
L
P