DETLions
-
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
045
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
11
0
21
Saints
14
14
10
7
45
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
515
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
4.0
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.11
Passing Yards
198
--
Comp/Att
16/37(43%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.72
Rushing Yards
33
157
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
1.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
21%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.44
-14.24
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.01
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
80
36
Penalty EPA
-17.67
-9.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model85.6%
Spread Pick
Lions+14.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
+39.4
Final Difference
310.0
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
No recent game data available
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
26
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
24
3
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
7
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
9
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U