DETLions
3-2
38
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
052
NOSaints
2-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
14
2
26
Saints
11
14
8
1
34
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
379
Total Plays
76
67
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.25
Passing Yards
281
--
Comp/Att
25/52(48%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.41
Rushing Yards
66
193
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-30.73
-14.51
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-16.36
--
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
46
118
Penalty EPA
+2.11
-2.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+63.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+22.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
+42.2
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
13
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
32
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
12
14
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
28
27
Turnover EPA / Game
9
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
4
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
3
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U