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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ saints week 13, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
7-4
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
31
NOSaints
8-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
13
10
0
23
Saints
3
21
0
7
31

Spread

NO logo
-9

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
537
510
Total Plays
81
67
Yards / Play
6.6
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.24
Passing Yards
425
397
Comp/Att
36/51(71%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.41
Rushing Yards
112
113
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
21
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.79
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-36
-4
Sack EPA
-2.64
-1.81
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
122
30
Penalty EPA
-12.66
-4.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.1
Home QB Adjustment
+27.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
09/18
6.6
89
09/25
4.2
77
10/02
-0.1
51
10/10
1.2
62
10/16
-0.2
50
10/23
-5.0
19
10/30
6.2
87
11/13
-7.4
8
11/20
7.8
93
11/24
1.6
63
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.2
Value
Ptile
09/18
7.4
92
09/25
4.8
80
10/02
0.7
57
10/09
6.0
86
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
12.3
98
10/30
-5.3
17
11/06
6.8
90
11/13
8.2
94
11/28
13.9
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Lions logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11

EPA

EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
14
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
20
27
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
3
30
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Saints logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25

EPA

EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
5
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
12
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
6
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
45
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
35
W
W
O
11/13
-24
L
L
O
11/20
14
W
W
O
11/24
-12
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/02
13
W
W
U
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
55
W
W
O
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/06
11
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/28
25
W
W
O