DETLions
7-4
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
8-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
13
10
0
23
Saints
3
21
0
7
31
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
537
510
Total Plays
81
67
Yards / Play
6.6
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.24
Passing Yards
425
397
Comp/Att
36/51(71%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.41
Rushing Yards
112
113
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
21
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.79
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-36
-4
Sack EPA
-2.64
-1.81
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
122
30
Penalty EPA
-12.66
-4.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,664
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.1
Home QB Adjustment
+27.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+27.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
20
27
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
3
30
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
12
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U