DETLions
4-9
35
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
027
NOSaints
5-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
7
7
35
Saints
3
0
7
17
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
399
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
7.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.06
Passing Yards
246
330
Comp/Att
22/25(88%)
34/52(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.65
+0.24
Rushing Yards
150
69
Rush Attempts
23
18
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
15
21
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
83%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.88
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-4.87
-2.06
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
92
28
Penalty EPA
-8.34
-8.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+70.3
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
31
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U