nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ saints week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DET logo
DETLions
4-9
35
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
27
NOSaints
5-8
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
14
7
7
35
Saints
3
0
7
17
27

Spread

DET logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
52

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
396
399
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
7.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.06
Passing Yards
246
330
Comp/Att
22/25(88%)
34/52(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.65
+0.24
Rushing Yards
150
69
Rush Attempts
23
18
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
15
21
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
83%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.88
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-4.87
-2.06
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
92
28
Penalty EPA
-8.34
-8.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+71.1
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Value
Ptile
10/05
1.3
60
10/11
-5.8
12
10/18
9.1
96
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
-8.2
4
11/15
2.0
65
11/22
1.0
56
11/26
10.7
97
12/03
1.9
64
12/13
-2.0
36
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/04
6.9
90
10/11
-1.8
37
10/15
5.5
85
10/25
-1.7
39
11/01
18.2
100
11/08
6.6
89
11/15
-3.5
25
11/29
-4.1
21
12/06
3.5
75
12/13
5.2
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Lions logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
31

EPA

EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
19
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Saints logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20

EPA

EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
9
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
9
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-25
L
L
O
10/18
3
W
L
O
10/25
-9
L
L
O
11/01
-35
L
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/26
31
W
W
O
12/03
-4
L
L
O
12/13
-7
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
6
W
W
U
10/11
-22
L
L
O
10/15
10
W
W
P
10/25
6
W
W
U
11/01
3
W
P
O
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-33
L
L
O
11/29
-18
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
7
W
W
U