DETLions
10-6
28
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
045
NOSaints
13-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
7
7
28
Saints
0
10
14
21
45
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
59.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
626
Total Plays
53
81
Yards / Play
7.8
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.39
Passing Yards
--
459
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.47
Rushing Yards
32
167
Rush Attempts
10
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
34
Passing 1st downs
20
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
70%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.53
-9.20
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-6.48
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
64
18
Penalty EPA
-7.02
-1.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+253
Home nfelo
1,706
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+43.8
Away QB Adjustment
+39.6
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+39.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+43.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
20
27
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
3
30
Saints Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
12
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
6-4
O/U