DETLions
1-6
20
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
11 mph
32
SEASeahawks
2-5
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
17
0
0
3
20
Seahawks
0
13
9
4
26
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
397
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.01
Passing Yards
186
342
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
40/53(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.09
Rushing Yards
114
55
Rush Attempts
21
18
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
5
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-17.43
-11.60
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-2
Sack EPA
-3.30
-1.09
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
77
45
Penalty EPA
-10.16
-6.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model80.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,287
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
241.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14
EPA
EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
25
EPA
EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
25
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-4-3
O/U