nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ seahawks week 9, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DET logo
DETLions
1-6
20
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
11 mph
32
SEASeahawks
2-5
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
17
0
0
3
20
Seahawks
0
13
9
4
26

Spread

SEA logo
-11

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
300
397
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.01
Passing Yards
186
342
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
40/53(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.09
Rushing Yards
114
55
Rush Attempts
21
18
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
5
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-17.43
-11.60
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-2
Sack EPA
-3.30
-1.09
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
77
45
Penalty EPA
-10.16
-6.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model80.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,287
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
241.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
09/13
-7.1
10
09/20
-4.0
24
09/27
2.5
66
10/04
-0.1
48
11/01
-5.6
16
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
09/21
0.8
58
10/05
-5.0
15
11/16
-6.3
9
11/23
-4.9
17
11/27
-6.0
10
09/13
5.4
84
09/20
-3.2
30
10/11
6.7
88
10/18
-13.5
1
11/01
1.2
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Lions logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14

EPA

EPA / Play
30
21
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
25
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
1
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Seahawks logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
25
32
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
25

EPA

EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
31
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
25
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
30
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-10
L
W
P
12/21
-35
L
L
P
12/28
-10
L
W
P
09/13
-18
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
-24
L
L
O
10/11
-8
L
W
O
10/18
-26
L
L
U
11/01
-7
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
3
W
W
P
12/21
10
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/13
28
W
W
U
09/20
-13
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
O
10/04
-17
L
L
O
10/11
41
W
W
U
10/18
-24
L
L
U
11/01
-21
L
L
O