DETLions
9-7
6
TBD
Lumen Field
38°F
7 mph
26
SEASeahawks
10-5
TBD
Lumen Field
38°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
3
0
6
Seahawks
0
10
0
16
26
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
387
Total Plays
50
71
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.20
Passing Yards
182
210
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.41
Rushing Yards
49
177
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
18%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-14
Sack EPA
-3.32
-5.50
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
68
40
Penalty EPA
-6.91
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model79.9%
Spread Pick
Seahawks-8.5
Expected Value
+14.5%
Cover Probability
60.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+274
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+88.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
-10.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
239.5
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
6
Interceptions / Game
9
25
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
17
20
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
21
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
15
26
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
15
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U