DETLions
6-3
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
60°F
12 mph
37
PITSteelers
3-6
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
60°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
27
0
0
27
Steelers
14
6
3
14
37
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
398
Total Plays
73
73
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.13
Passing Yards
344
358
Comp/Att
19/46(41%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.49
Rushing Yards
107
40
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
1.5
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
40%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.52
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-9
Sack EPA
-4.93
-1.26
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
45
23
Penalty EPA
-2.13
-2.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-22.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
13
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21
EPA
EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
31
16
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Steelers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
13
16
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U