DETLions
7-1
26
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
6-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
6
13
26
Texans
10
13
0
0
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
248
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
192
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.18
Rushing Yards
105
56
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
5
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.50
-10.56
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-40
Sack EPA
--
-6.53
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
61
30
Penalty EPA
-6.34
-3.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-125
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,691
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-13.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Texans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
22
6
EPA / Rush
26
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
28
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U