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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ texans week 10, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
7-1
26
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
23
HOUTexans
6-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
6
13
26
Texans
10
13
0
0
23

Spread

HOU logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
345
248
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
192
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.18
Rushing Yards
105
56
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
5
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.50
-10.56
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-40
Sack EPA
--
-6.53
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
61
30
Penalty EPA
-6.34
-3.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,692
Home Field
+49.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-13.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-11.1
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
01/21
3.2
71
01/28
1.5
59
09/08
-2.2
33
09/15
-2.2
33
09/22
-0.8
43
09/30
4.4
77
10/13
6.3
85
10/20
2.8
69
10/27
-2.9
28
11/03
0.5
52
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Value
Ptile
01/20
1.2
57
09/08
0.9
55
09/15
-0.9
43
09/22
-6.2
11
09/29
4.9
79
10/06
6.0
84
10/13
0.6
52
10/20
-8.9
4
10/27
-0.2
48
10/31
-8.2
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Texans Defense
Lions logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9

EPA

EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
6
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Texans Offense vs Lions Defense
Texans logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
22
6
EPA / Rush
26
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
28
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/21
8
W
W
O
01/28
-3
L
W
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/30
13
W
W
O
10/13
38
W
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
38
W
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/20
-24
L
L
P
09/08
2
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
P
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
09/29
4
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
20
W
W
O
10/20
-2
L
W
U
10/27
3
W
L
U
10/31
-8
L
L
U