DETLions
0-1
16
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
67°F
026
MINVikings
0-1
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
67°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
0
6
16
Vikings
7
10
6
3
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
350
Total Plays
71
61
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.06
Passing Yards
285
151
Comp/Att
32/53(60%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.36
Rushing Yards
38
199
Rush Attempts
17
42
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-18.03
-5.22
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-2
Sack EPA
-0.99
-0.99
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
39
97
Penalty EPA
-4.85
-10.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model50.5%
Spread Pick
Lions+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
3.7
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
19
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U