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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ vikings week 2, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
0-1
16
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
67°F
0
26
MINVikings
0-1
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
67°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
10
0
6
16
Vikings
7
10
6
3
26

Spread

MIN logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
323
350
Total Plays
71
61
Yards / Play
4.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.06
Passing Yards
285
151
Comp/Att
32/53(60%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.36
Rushing Yards
38
199
Rush Attempts
17
42
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-18.03
-5.22
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-2
Sack EPA
-0.99
-0.99
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
39
97
Penalty EPA
-4.85
-10.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
4.4
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
11/09
0.6
54
11/16
-6.8
11
11/23
-6.8
11
11/27
8.0
91
12/07
4.4
80
12/14
-0.5
47
12/21
-10.2
3
12/28
2.2
67
01/04
0.5
52
09/13
-1.6
39
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
10/26
-1.2
42
11/02
1.5
61
11/16
-5.5
17
11/23
-0.1
49
11/30
-1.6
38
12/07
0.9
56
12/14
1.5
61
12/21
-0.1
49
12/28
-3.5
28
09/14
-3.8
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17

EPA

EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
19
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20

EPA

EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
4
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
25
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
4
W
W
U
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-25
L
L
U
11/27
17
W
W
O
12/07
17
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/21
6
W
L
U
12/28
-10
L
L
O
01/04
-4
L
W
U
09/13
-5
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
6
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
18
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/21
-2
L
W
O
12/28
4
W
L
U
09/14
-17
L
L
U