DETLions
0-2
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
024
MINVikings
0-2
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
0
0
10
Vikings
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
-13
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
368
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
4.7
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.02
Passing Yards
232
185
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.28
Rushing Yards
63
183
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
25%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.08
-8.55
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-16
Sack EPA
-1.51
-1.63
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
67
100
Penalty EPA
-8.71
-5.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+290
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,312
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+43.8
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
19
Yards / Game
23
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U