DETLions
2-1
14
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
07
MINVikings
2-1
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
11
0
14
Vikings
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
284
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
3.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.39
Passing Yards
156
197
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.28
Rushing Yards
97
87
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-13.96
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-55
-22
Sack EPA
-10.98
-3.65
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
60
10
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-0.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.4%
Spread Pick
Lions+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-92.2
Home QB Adjustment
-87.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-3.9
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-87.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
32
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
26
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
21
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U