DETLions
3-2
17
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
53°F
03
MINVikings
2-3
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
53°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
0
7
17
Vikings
0
0
0
3
3
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
255
212
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
3.9
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.47
Passing Yards
155
143
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.70
Rushing Yards
100
69
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
8%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.41
Sacks
4
8
Sack Yards
-30
-45
Sack EPA
-4.86
-12.96
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-2.91
-6.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+45.3
Home QB Adjustment
+39.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
+38.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+39.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
24
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
15
18
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U