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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ vikings week 6, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-2
17
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
53°F
0
3
MINVikings
2-3
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
53°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
0
7
17
Vikings
0
0
0
3
3

Spread

DET logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
255
212
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
3.9
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.47
Passing Yards
155
143
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.70
Rushing Yards
100
69
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
8%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.41
Sacks
4
8
Sack Yards
-30
-45
Sack EPA
-4.86
-12.96
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-2.91
-6.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+45.3
Home QB Adjustment
+39.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
+32.7
Final Difference
16.7
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
11/28
3.6
74
12/08
-5.3
18
12/16
-4.9
19
12/22
-6.1
13
12/29
-4.4
23
09/08
8.8
94
09/14
-2.5
32
09/21
-4.9
20
09/28
4.3
79
10/05
-5.7
17
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+39.8
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
24
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
15
18
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1

EPA

EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
2
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
30
W
W
O
12/08
-14
L
L
P
12/16
-2
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
12/29
-1
L
L
U
09/08
21
W
W
O
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
3
W
W
U
12/08
-3
L
W
O
12/15
18
W
W
O
12/22
-28
L
L
O
12/29
1
W
W
U
09/07
28
W
W
U
09/14
-23
L
L
U
09/21
-11
L
L
U
09/28
13
W
W
O
10/02
-32
L
L
O