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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ vikings week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-8
7
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
20
MINVikings
8-4
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
7
7
Vikings
7
10
0
3
20

Spread

MIN logo
-12.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
231
354
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
3.4
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.07
Passing Yards
161
234
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.19
Rushing Yards
70
120
Rush Attempts
22
39
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.42
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-44
-8
Sack EPA
-10.26
-2.56
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
28
55
Penalty EPA
-3.23
-8.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+255
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+17.8
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
-21.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
+150.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-133.7
Market Regression
-8.3
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

D. Blough headshot

D. Blough

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-133.7
Value
Ptile
11/28
0.2
54
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
09/22
0.2
53
09/29
-2.9
31
10/06
3.7
77
10/13
6.9
90
10/20
8.9
95
10/24
0.9
59
11/03
1.1
61
11/10
3.5
75
11/17
5.8
85
12/02
0.7
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17

EPA

EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
27
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21

EPA

EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
10
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-4
L
W
O
10/14
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-12
L
L
O
10/27
5
W
L
O
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U
11/17
-8
L
L
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-4
L
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
20
W
W
O
09/29
-10
L
L
U
10/06
18
W
W
U
10/13
18
W
W
O
10/20
12
W
W
O
10/24
10
W
L
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
4
W
W
O
11/17
4
W
L
O
12/02
-7
L
L
O