DETLions
3-8
7
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
020
MINVikings
8-4
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
7
7
Vikings
7
10
0
3
20
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
354
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
3.4
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.07
Passing Yards
161
234
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.19
Rushing Yards
70
120
Rush Attempts
22
39
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.42
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-44
-8
Sack EPA
-10.26
-2.56
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
28
55
Penalty EPA
-3.23
-8.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+256
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+17.7
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
-21.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
+150.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-133.7
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
D. Blough
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-133.7
Value
Ptile
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
27
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
19
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U