DETLions
7-8
13
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
014
MINVikings
4-10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
7
6
13
Vikings
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
345
Total Plays
60
56
Yards / Play
4.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.16
Passing Yards
182
171
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.26
Rushing Yards
63
174
Rush Attempts
22
20
Yards / Rush
2.9
8.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.80
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-35
-18
Sack EPA
-7.18
-3.14
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
52
25
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.9
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
-21.5
Market Regression
-40.5
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.5
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16
EPA
EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
11
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Vikings
3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U