Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.
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Chiefs | |||||||
(17 - 2 - 0) | pythag wins: 11.5 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1610 (6) | 0.03 (12) | ||||||
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Eagles | |||||||
(17 - 3 - 0) | pythag wins: 15 | |||||||
nfelo | Net EPA / Play | ||||||
1708 (2) | 0.22 (2) | ||||||
EPA Ranks | ![]() | ![]() |
Offense | 10 | 6 |
Pass | 9 | 6 |
Run | 19 | 1 |
Defense | 20 | 2 |
Pass | 21 | 1 |
Run | 19 | 2 |
Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.
Home nfelo | ................................................ | 1708 | |
- | Away nfelo | ................................................ | 1610 |
Unadj Difference | ................................................ | 98 | |
. | |||
+ | HFA Adj ▸ | ................................................ | (7) |
+ | Net Rest Adj | ................................................ | 0 |
+ | Net QB Adj | ................................................ | (13) |
Adj Difference | ................................................ | 86 | |
. | |||
Market Dif | ................................................ | (38) | |
Market Reg. Factor | ................................................ | 0.45 | |
Regressed Dif | ................................................ | 36 | |
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Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread
Team | nfelo Dif ➡ | Win Prob ➡ | nfelo Spread |
---|---|---|---|
Eagles | 36 | 55% | -2.5 |
Chiefs | (36) | 45% | 2.5 |
Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸
Eagles
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-2.5 | 1.5 | 44% | 0% | 56% | 105 | $10.48 | 10% |
-2.5 | 1.5 | 44% | 0% | 56% | 110 | $8.3 | 7.5% |
-2.5 | 1.5 | 44% | 0% | 56% | 115 | $6.12 | 5.3% |
Chiefs
Model Line | Market Line | Loss % | Push % | Cover % | Price | EV ($) | EV (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.5 | -1.5 | 56% | 0% | 44% | 105 | $-15.48 | -14.7% |
2.5 | -1.5 | 56% | 0% | 44% | 110 | $-18.3 | -16.6% |
2.5 | -1.5 | 56% | 0% | 44% | 115 | $-21.12 | -18.4% |
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