nfelo

Games

Teams

QBs

Analysis

Team Summary

Team stats and rankings measure a point in time and update week to week. Elo rankings are gross of any adjustments, including QB. The downgrade for an injured QB is reflected in the EV calculations below.

Chiefs
Chiefs
(17 - 2 - 0) | pythag wins: 11.5
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1610 (6)0.03 (12)

@

Eagles
Eagles
(17 - 3 - 0) | pythag wins: 15
nfelo
Net EPA / Play
1708 (2)0.22 (2)
EPA Ranks
Chiefs
Eagles
Offense
10
6
Pass
9
6
Run
19
1
Defense
20
2
Pass
21
1
Run
19
2

Chiefs Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
BUF
W 32-29
3
-1.5
W
HOU
W 23-14
9
-9.5
L
@DEN
L 0-38
-38
10.5
L
@PIT
W 29-10
19
-3.0
W
HOU
W 27-19
8
-3.5
W

Eagles Last 5 Games

OppResultMarginLineATS
WAS
W 55-23
32
-6.0
W
LAR
W 28-22
6
-7.0
L
GB
W 22-10
12
-5.5
W
NYG
W 20-13
7
-3.0
W
DAL
W 41-7
34
-7.5
W

EV Calculation

Difference in nfelo ratings (ie Power Ratings) is adjusted for context, regressed to the market, and translated to a spread. This spread is then used to calculate an EV based on modeled W/L/P probabilities.

Home nfelo................................................1708
-Away nfelo................................................1610
Unadj Difference................................................98
.
+HFA Adj ▸................................................(7)
+Net Rest Adj................................................0
+Net QB Adj................................................(13)
Adj Difference................................................86
.
Market Dif................................................(38)
Market Reg. Factor................................................0.45
Regressed Dif................................................36
.

Translate nfelo difference to a WP% and spread

Teamnfelo Dif ➡Win Prob ➡nfelo Spread
Eagles3655%-2.5
Chiefs(36)45%2.5

Translate model spread into an expected bet value (EV)▸

Eagles

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
-2.51.544%0%56%105$10.4810%
-2.51.544%0%56%110$8.37.5%
-2.51.544%0%56%115$6.125.3%

Chiefs

Model LineMarket LineLoss %Push %Cover %PriceEV ($)EV (%)
2.5-1.556%0%44%105$-15.48-14.7%
2.5-1.556%0%44%110$-18.3-16.6%
2.5-1.556%0%44%115$-21.12-18.4%
.