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Betting Card

NFL Games with a projected +EV side

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Total Games

14

+EV Games

3

Leans

2

Expected Units

+0.27

+EV Bets

CIN logo
CIN
4-8
@
BUF
8-4
BUF logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow headshot
J. Burrow
Adj: -0.7
J. Allen
Adj: -5.8
J. Allen headshot
Model Recommendation
Buffalo Bills
Bills-6
Market Line-6
Model Line-7.5
Cover Probability58.8%
Expected Value+16.2%
SEA logo
SEA
9-3
@
ATL
4-8
ATL logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold headshot
S. Darnold
Adj: -4.9
K. Cousins
Adj: 35.6
K. Cousins headshot
Model Recommendation
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons+7
Market Line+7
Model Line+5
Cover Probability53.5%
Expected Value+8.6%
MIA logo
MIA
5-7
@
NYJ
3-9
NYJ logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
MetLife Stadium
41°F
6 mph
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa headshot
T. Tagovailoa
Adj: -32.5
T. Taylor
Adj: -19.7
T. Taylor headshot
Model Recommendation
New York Jets
Jets+2.5
Market Line+2.5
Model Line+0.5
Cover Probability53.8%
Expected Value+2.6%

Simulated Unit Outcomes

Negative Weeks
42%
Positive Weeks
58%