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Betting Card

NFL Games with a projected +EV side

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Total Games

6

+EV Games

3

Leans

1

Expected Units

+0.37

+EV Bets

SF logo
SF
12-5
@
PHI
11-6
PHI logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy headshot
B. Purdy
Adj: 15.6
J. Hurts
Adj: -1.1
J. Hurts headshot
Model Recommendation
San Francisco 49ers
49ers+6
Market Line+6
Model Line+3
Cover Probability60.8%
Expected Value+18.4%
LAC logo
LAC
11-6
@
NE
14-3
NE logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Gillette Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert headshot
J. Herbert
Adj: -4.6
D. Maye
Adj: 32.2
D. Maye headshot
Model Recommendation
New England Patriots
Patriots-3.5
Market Line-3.5
Model Line-6.5
Cover Probability58.3%
Expected Value+11.3%
GB logo
GB
9-7
@
CHI
11-6
CHI logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Soldier Field
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
J. Love headshot
J. Love
Adj: -3.9
C. Williams
Adj: 22.0
C. Williams headshot
Model Recommendation
Chicago Bears
Bears+1.5
Market Line+1.5
Model Line-2.5
Cover Probability56.3%
Expected Value+7.5%

Simulated Unit Outcomes

Negative Weeks
38%
Positive Weeks
62%