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Kalshi
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Betting Card

NFL Games with a projected +EV side

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Total Games

16

+EV Games

5

Leans

2

Expected Units

+0.98

+EV Bets

NYJ logo
NYJ
3-13
@
BUF
11-5
BUF logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
New Era Field
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
B. Cook headshot
B. Cook
Adj: -76.9
M. Trubisky
Adj: -106.7
M. Trubisky headshot
Model Recommendation
Buffalo Bills
Bills-6.5
Market Line-6.5
Model Line-10
Cover Probability68.4%
Expected Value+30.6%
ARI logo
ARI
3-13
@
LAR
11-5
LAR logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
SoFi Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett headshot
J. Brissett
Adj: -35.9
J. Stafford
Adj: 22.9
J. Stafford headshot
Model Recommendation
Los Angeles Rams
Rams-7.5
Market Line-7.5
Model Line-11
Cover Probability65.5%
Expected Value+25.0%
WAS logo
WAS
4-12
@
PHI
11-5
PHI logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
J. Johnson headshot
J. Johnson
Adj: -103.8
T. McKee
Adj: -101.4
T. McKee headshot
Model Recommendation
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles-4
Market Line-4
Model Line-7
Cover Probability61.1%
Expected Value+19.2%
GB logo
GB
9-6
@
MIN
8-8
MIN logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
M. Willis headshot
M. Willis
Adj: -54.3
M. Brosmer
Adj: -52.6
M. Brosmer headshot
Model Recommendation
Green Bay Packers
Packers+7.5
Market Line+7.5
Model Line+4
Cover Probability61.6%
Expected Value+17.5%
DAL logo
DAL
7-8
@
NYG
3-13
NYG logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
MetLife Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott headshot
R. Prescott
Adj: 9.9
J. Dart
Adj: -12.0
J. Dart headshot
Model Recommendation
New York Giants
Giants+3.5
Market Line+3.5
Model Line+3
Cover Probability55.4%
Expected Value+5.8%

Simulated Unit Outcomes

Negative Weeks
28%
Positive Weeks
72%