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Betting Card

NFL Games with a projected +EV side

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Total Games

16

+EV Games

8

Leans

1

Expected Units

+0.72

+EV Bets

DEN logo
DEN
12-3
@
KC
6-9
KC logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
B. Nix headshot
B. Nix
Adj: 12.4
TBD
Adj: -121.6
Model Recommendation
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs+13.5
Market Line+13.5
Model Line+10
Cover Probability63.2%
Expected Value+20.6%
DAL logo
DAL
6-8
@
WAS
4-11
WAS logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
FedExField
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott headshot
R. Prescott
Adj: 17.6
J. Johnson
Adj: -107.1
J. Johnson headshot
Model Recommendation
Washington Commanders
Commanders+8.5
Market Line+8.5
Model Line+6.5
Cover Probability61.6%
Expected Value+17.7%
JAX logo
JAX
11-4
@
IND
8-7
IND logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence headshot
W. Lawrence
Adj: 21.9
P. Rivers
Adj: 15.3
P. Rivers headshot
Model Recommendation
Indianapolis Colts
Colts+6.5
Market Line+6.5
Model Line+3.5
Cover Probability57.6%
Expected Value+10.0%
PIT logo
PIT
9-6
@
CLE
3-12
CLE logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers headshot
A. Rodgers
Adj: 1.2
S. Sanders
Adj: -28.2
S. Sanders headshot
Model Recommendation
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers-3
Market Line-3
Model Line-4
Cover Probability51.8%
Expected Value+7.1%
TB logo
TB
7-8
@
MIA
6-9
MIA logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield headshot
B. Mayfield
Adj: -19.9
Q. Ewers
Adj: -79.9
Q. Ewers headshot
Model Recommendation
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins+5.5
Market Line+5.5
Model Line+3.5
Cover Probability55.0%
Expected Value+5.0%
CHI logo
CHI
11-4
@
SF
11-4
SF logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Levi's Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
C. Williams headshot
C. Williams
Adj: 19.8
B. Purdy
Adj: 15.4
B. Purdy headshot
Model Recommendation
San Francisco 49ers
49ers-3
Market Line-3
Model Line-3.5
Cover Probability50.0%
Expected Value+4.3%
ARI logo
ARI
3-12
@
CIN
5-10
CIN logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Paycor Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett headshot
J. Brissett
Adj: -32.9
J. Burrow
Adj: 5.2
J. Burrow headshot
Model Recommendation
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals-7
Market Line-7
Model Line-7.5
Cover Probability50.0%
Expected Value+4.3%
NO logo
NO
5-10
@
TEN
3-12
TEN logo
Game Details
00:00 PM
Nissan Stadium
70°F
N/A
Quarterbacks
T. Shough headshot
T. Shough
Adj: 1.9
C. Ward
Adj: 0.6
C. Ward headshot
Model Recommendation
Tennessee Titans
Titans+2.5
Market Line+2.5
Model LineN/A
Cover Probability53.8%
Expected Value+2.6%

Simulated Unit Outcomes

Negative Weeks
44%
Positive Weeks
56%