Model Performance
NFL Model Performance
Performance Summary
Accuracy
66.58%
% of winners predicted
vs Opening Line
+0.21%
vs Closing Line
-0.33%
ATS Win Rate
56.37%
Against the opening line
Against the closing line
53.94%
Units since 2009
100.6
Prediction Error
10.1
Model Mean Absolute Error
vs Opening Line MAE
+0.10
vs Closing Line MAE
-0.01
CLV
5.57%
Average Closing Line Value / play
Expected Units
68.4
Unit Returns
Cumulative Units
Units by Season (Open)
Units by Season (Close)
Season Detail
| Season | Model SU% | vs Close | Model MAE | vs Close | Open Bets | ATS | Units | CLV | Close Bets | ATS | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 68.4% | -1.0% | 11.3 | 0.02 | 85 | 54.1% | +3.1 | 3.89% | 86 | 51.9% | -0.9 |
| 2010 | 65.9% | 0.1% | 10.8 | 0.08 | 85 | 53.6% | +2.1 | 5.27% | 76 | 48.0% | -6.9 |
| 2011 | 68.2% | 1.5% | 10.4 | -0.11 | 79 | 65.8% | +21.4 | 4.88% | 94 | 61.1% | +16.5 |
| 2012 | 64.3% | -0.2% | 10.8 | 0.07 | 63 | 46.0% | -8.4 | 5.27% | 80 | 42.3% | -16.5 |
| 2013 | 69.8% | -1.2% | 9.8 | -0.02 | 85 | 49.4% | -5.0 | 4.82% | 80 | 63.2% | +17.2 |
| 2014 | 68.4% | 1.1% | 11.3 | -0.05 | 70 | 50.7% | -2.3 | 4.59% | 80 | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| 2015 | 65.0% | 2.0% | 10.0 | -0.13 | 76 | 64.9% | +19.4 | 3.78% | 78 | 66.7% | +22.5 |
| 2016 | 64.0% | -2.3% | 9.0 | -0.02 | 67 | 59.1% | +9.3 | 5.84% | 76 | 58.9% | +10.0 |
| 2017 | 69.8% | 0.1% | 10.0 | -0.04 | 60 | 60.0% | +9.6 | 4.80% | 75 | 56.8% | +6.8 |
| 2018 | 64.4% | -0.9% | 9.9 | 0.02 | 71 | 55.7% | +4.9 | 5.81% | 71 | 55.7% | +4.9 |
| 2019 | 64.2% | -1.1% | 10.2 | 0.10 | 61 | 61.0% | +10.7 | 4.64% | 79 | 47.4% | -8.0 |
| 2020 | 68.0% | -0.3% | 9.8 | 0.10 | 103 | 60.0% | +16.0 | 5.18% | 93 | 52.7% | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 60.6% | -2.4% | 10.7 | 0.05 | 65 | 54.7% | +3.1 | 6.05% | 87 | 50.6% | -3.2 |
| 2022 | 66.5% | 0.6% | 8.7 | -0.04 | 73 | 58.3% | +9.0 | 5.24% | 69 | 58.8% | +9.2 |
| 2023 | 67.3% | -0.2% | 10.0 | 0.04 | 83 | 61.4% | +15.8 | 12.98% | 58 | 50.0% | -2.8 |
| 2024 | 69.8% | -0.7% | 9.8 | 0.09 | 72 | 53.6% | +1.8 | 4.35% | 79 | 44.7% | -12.2 |
| 2025 | 68.1% | -0.8% | 10.1 | 0.07 | 30 | 36.7% | -9.9 | 8.42% | 21 | 47.6% | -2.1 |