Model Performance
NFL Model Performance
Performance Summary
Accuracy
66.53%
% of winners predicted
vs Opening Line
+0.27%
vs Closing Line
-0.33%
ATS Win Rate
57.36%
Against the opening line
Against the closing line
54.07%
Units since 2009
122.2
Prediction Error
10.2
Model Mean Absolute Error
vs Opening Line MAE
+0.10
vs Closing Line MAE
-0.01
CLV
5.59%
Average Closing Line Value / play
Expected Units
66.8
Unit Returns
Cumulative Units
Units by Season (Open)
Units by Season (Close)
Season Detail
| Season | Model SU% | vs Close | Model MAE | vs Close | Open Bets | ATS | Units | CLV | Close Bets | ATS | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 68.4% | -1.0% | 11.2 | 0.02 | 84 | 54.8% | +4.2 | 3.95% | 88 | 53.0% | +1.1 |
| 2010 | 65.4% | -0.4% | 10.9 | 0.09 | 86 | 54.8% | +4.2 | 5.02% | 79 | 50.6% | -2.8 |
| 2011 | 67.8% | 1.1% | 10.4 | -0.10 | 75 | 65.3% | +19.5 | 5.37% | 91 | 60.9% | +15.6 |
| 2012 | 64.7% | 0.1% | 10.8 | 0.07 | 61 | 52.5% | +0.1 | 5.66% | 81 | 43.0% | -15.5 |
| 2013 | 70.2% | -0.8% | 9.8 | -0.04 | 85 | 50.6% | -2.9 | 4.87% | 81 | 62.3% | +16.1 |
| 2014 | 67.3% | -0.0% | 11.3 | -0.04 | 73 | 48.6% | -5.6 | 4.78% | 83 | 53.7% | +2.2 |
| 2015 | 65.4% | 2.4% | 10.0 | -0.12 | 74 | 65.3% | +19.5 | 3.97% | 76 | 67.1% | +22.6 |
| 2016 | 64.4% | -1.9% | 9.0 | -0.01 | 67 | 59.7% | +10.3 | 5.76% | 76 | 58.9% | +10.0 |
| 2017 | 69.8% | 0.1% | 10.0 | -0.04 | 65 | 60.0% | +10.4 | 4.87% | 76 | 57.3% | +7.8 |
| 2018 | 64.4% | -0.9% | 9.9 | 0.05 | 72 | 54.9% | +3.8 | 5.98% | 70 | 55.1% | +3.9 |
| 2019 | 64.2% | -1.1% | 10.2 | 0.10 | 62 | 65.0% | +15.9 | 5.31% | 76 | 48.6% | -5.7 |
| 2020 | 68.0% | -0.3% | 9.8 | 0.11 | 101 | 60.2% | +16.1 | 5.40% | 94 | 52.2% | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 60.9% | -2.2% | 10.7 | 0.05 | 62 | 54.1% | +2.2 | 5.48% | 85 | 49.4% | -5.2 |
| 2022 | 66.5% | 0.6% | 8.8 | -0.03 | 73 | 59.7% | +11.1 | 5.24% | 71 | 58.6% | +9.1 |
| 2023 | 67.3% | -0.2% | 10.0 | 0.04 | 80 | 61.3% | +14.9 | 13.42% | 61 | 50.8% | -1.9 |
| 2024 | 69.8% | -0.7% | 9.8 | 0.08 | 71 | 54.4% | +2.9 | 4.40% | 76 | 47.9% | -6.8 |
| 2025 | 0.0% | -- | 0.0 | -- | 4 | 0.0% | -4.4 | 0.00% | 6 | 0.0% | -6.6 |