GBPackers
1-1
30
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
15 mph
28
SF49ers
2-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
69°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
7
0
13
30
49ers
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
298
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.17
Passing Yards
253
231
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.02
Rushing Yards
100
67
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
45%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.64
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-26
Sack EPA
-1.90
-8.78
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
87
86
Penalty EPA
-11.44
-8.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+73.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
7
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
24
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
6
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
18
13
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
10
Yards / Game
11
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
30
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U