GBPackers
3-0
17
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
5 mph
3
SF49ers
1-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
10
0
17
49ers
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
196
Total Plays
68
50
Yards / Play
5.3
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.30
Passing Yards
200
119
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.32
Rushing Yards
162
77
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
8
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.57
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-24
-41
Sack EPA
-4.41
-11.22
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
65
30
Penalty EPA
-6.99
-3.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
49ers+7.5
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-125
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-37.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.8
Away QB Adjustment
+28.5
Market Regression
+2.0
Final Difference
-165.1
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.5
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
22
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
18
29
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
16
21
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
29
7
EPA / Rush
9
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U