GBPackers
14-3
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
5 mph
37
SF49ers
14-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
58°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
7
13
20
49ers
7
20
7
3
37
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
354
Total Plays
59
51
Yards / Play
6.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.40
Passing Yards
296
69
Comp/Att
31/40(78%)
6/8(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.04
Rushing Yards
62
285
Rush Attempts
16
42
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
16
3
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.14
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-30
-8
Sack EPA
-5.69
-2.61
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
46
10
Penalty EPA
-4.88
-2.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,643
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+62.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
+26.4
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
22
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
2
27
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U