GBPackers
10-8
21
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
8 mph
24
SF49ers
12-5
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
3
15
0
21
49ers
0
7
7
10
24
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
356
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.10
Passing Yards
--
245
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.18
Rushing Yards
136
111
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
54%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.03
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.13
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
83
Penalty EPA
--
-9.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+252
Home nfelo
1,711
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+75.7
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.5
Net QB Adjustment
-15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+36.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+36.4
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5
EPA
EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
14
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
17
11
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
5
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
12
28
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U