nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bears week 1, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

GB logo
GBPackers
-
31
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
11 mph
23
CHIBears
-
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
7
14
31
Bears
3
10
3
7
23

Spread

GB logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
322
402
Total Plays
53
71
Yards / Play
6.1
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.43
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
213
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.01
Rushing Yards
133
189
Rush Attempts
30
33
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
60%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.05
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-3.78
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
74
64
Penalty EPA
-1.79
-7.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
-39.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Value
Ptile
11/09
11.3
98
11/16
9.0
94
11/23
3.9
76
11/30
5.4
83
12/08
8.3
92
12/14
-6.1
15
12/21
5.8
85
12/28
8.2
92
01/11
6.0
87
01/18
-2.7
31
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
10/12
3.8
76
10/19
-4.0
25
10/26
1.1
57
11/09
-4.7
22
11/16
7.2
89
11/23
-4.6
22
11/27
-1.5
39
12/04
7.9
91
12/15
-11.2
2
12/28
-0.8
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22

EPA

EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
18
22
EPA / Rush
8
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19

EPA

EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
10
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
27
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
41
W
W
O
11/16
33
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/30
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/14
-8
L
L
U
12/21
17
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
O
01/11
5
W
L
U
01/18
-6
L
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-13
L
L
U
10/26
-28
L
L
O
11/09
-41
L
L
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
8
W
W
U
11/27
-17
L
L
O
12/04
-13
L
L
O
12/15
-16
L
L
U
12/21
-6
L
W
U
12/28
-4
L
W
U