GBPackers
-
31
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
11 mph
23
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
72°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
7
14
31
Bears
3
10
3
7
23
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
402
Total Plays
53
71
Yards / Play
6.1
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.43
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
213
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.01
Rushing Yards
133
189
Rush Attempts
30
33
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
60%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.05
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-3.78
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
74
64
Penalty EPA
-1.79
-7.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-141
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
-39.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
18
22
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U