GBPackers
-
38
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
020
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
14
8
32
Bears
3
3
8
6
20
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
313
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
5.5
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.21
Passing Yards
237
189
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.31
Rushing Yards
92
124
Rush Attempts
32
30
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
56%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.53
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-1.28
-8.97
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
90
61
Penalty EPA
+1.90
-4.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model42.9%
Spread Pick
Packers+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
-19.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
-14.1
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
-49.4
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.1
Value
Ptile
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
5
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
23
25
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
22
28
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
0-10
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U