GBPackers
2-0
17
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
6 mph
20
CHIBears
2-0
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
0
7
17
Bears
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
276
Total Plays
60
48
Yards / Play
6.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
199
Comp/Att
34/45(76%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.03
Rushing Yards
63
77
Rush Attempts
15
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.27
-3.33
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-4.93
Penalties
17
5
Penalty Yards
152
38
Penalty EPA
-16.03
-4.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model61.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-131
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-81.1
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
11
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U