GBPackers
2-0
27
TBD
Soldier Field
61°F
10 mph
17
CHIBears
1-1
TBD
Soldier Field
61°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
10
3
7
27
Bears
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
291
Total Plays
69
52
Yards / Play
5.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.26
Passing Yards
292
278
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.06
Rushing Yards
100
13
Rush Attempts
29
12
Yards / Rush
3.4
1.1
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.69
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
12
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.64
-5.71
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-5
-24
Sack EPA
-1.51
-4.86
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-6.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
4
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
5
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
1
7
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U