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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bears week 6, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
4-1
24
TBD
Soldier Field
59°F
6 mph
14
CHIBears
3-2
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
7
7
24
Bears
7
0
0
7
14

Spread

GB logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
323
277
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
5.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.02
Passing Yards
169
137
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.16
Rushing Yards
154
140
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.27
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-37
Sack EPA
-6.43
-6.49
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
51
54
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-6.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+22.8
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-40.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+1.8
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
12/19
-3.7
20
12/27
5.0
78
01/03
7.2
89
01/16
8.1
92
01/24
1.4
53
09/12
-9.1
5
09/20
3.4
77
09/26
3.4
77
10/03
1.6
64
10/10
2.4
71
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-40.6
Value
Ptile
09/26
-18.2
0
10/03
-5.6
16
10/10
-5.7
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
7
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
18
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
30
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
8
W
L
U
12/27
26
W
W
O
01/03
19
W
W
O
01/16
14
W
W
O
01/24
-5
L
L
O
09/12
-35
L
L
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/26
2
W
W
O
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
O
12/27
24
W
W
O
01/03
-19
L
L
O
01/10
-12
L
L
U
09/12
-20
L
L
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
09/26
-20
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
11
W
W
U