GBPackers
4-1
24
TBD
Soldier Field
59°F
6 mph
14
CHIBears
3-2
TBD
Soldier Field
59°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
7
7
24
Bears
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
277
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
5.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.02
Passing Yards
169
137
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.16
Rushing Yards
154
140
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.27
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-26
-37
Sack EPA
-6.43
-6.49
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
51
54
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-6.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-178
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+22.8
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.6
Home QB Adjustment
-40.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+2.4
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-40.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
7
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
18
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U