GBPackers
4-8
28
TBD
Soldier Field
38°F
12 mph
19
CHIBears
3-9
TBD
Soldier Field
38°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
0
18
28
Bears
10
6
3
0
19
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
409
Total Plays
64
50
Yards / Play
5.6
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.03
Rushing Yards
175
155
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
46%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.49
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
63
Penalty EPA
--
-5.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,376
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+22.0
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.8
Home QB Adjustment
+29.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
22
27
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
8-2
O/U