nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ bears week 13, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

GB logo
GBPackers
4-8
28
TBD
Soldier Field
38°F
12 mph
19
CHIBears
3-9
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
38°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
0
18
28
Bears
10
6
3
0
19

Spread

GB logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
359
409
Total Plays
64
50
Yards / Play
5.6
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.03
Rushing Yards
175
155
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
46%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.49
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
63
Penalty EPA
--
-5.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+22.0
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+48.8
Home QB Adjustment
+29.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Value
Ptile
09/25
3.9
80
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
1.5
63
10/16
-2.6
31
10/23
1.7
65
10/30
1.0
59
11/06
-4.7
20
11/13
4.6
83
11/17
1.7
65
11/27
-4.5
21
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Value
Ptile
09/18
-6.6
11
09/25
-11.5
1
10/02
-6.6
10
10/09
1.9
68
10/13
-3.5
25
10/24
1.5
63
10/30
5.6
87
11/06
12.8
99
11/13
8.1
93
11/20
-2.0
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31

EPA

EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
10
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
22
27
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
2
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
13
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
2
W
W
U
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/16
-17
L
L
U
10/23
-2
L
L
O
10/30
-10
L
W
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/17
-10
L
L
O
11/27
-7
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
-8
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
W
O
10/13
-5
L
L
U
10/24
19
W
W
O
10/30
-20
L
L
O
11/06
-3
L
W
O
11/13
-1
L
L
O
11/20
-3
L
P
O
11/27
-21
L
L
O