GBPackers
8-4
21
TBD
Soldier Field
38°F
8 mph
14
CHIBears
5-7
TBD
Soldier Field
38°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
3
0
8
21
Bears
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
254
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.26
Passing Yards
171
195
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.15
Rushing Yards
146
59
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.09
-9.59
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-14
Sack EPA
-1.82
-0.26
Penalties
4
13
Penalty Yards
30
109
Penalty EPA
-2.73
-10.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-145
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.1
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.0
Market Regression
-11.7
Final Difference
-116.3
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
21
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
25
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U