GBPackers
9-4
21
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
9 mph
13
CHIBears
8-5
TBD
Soldier Field
44°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
14
7
0
21
Bears
0
7
3
3
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
190
Total Plays
71
48
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.15
Passing Yards
278
107
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.49
Rushing Yards
113
83
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
41%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.65
+0.80
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-13
-28
Sack EPA
-3.95
-4.81
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
104
91
Penalty EPA
-9.26
-12.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
Bears+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-45.2
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
18
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U