
GBPackers
12-6
21
TBD
Soldier Field
20°F
14 mph
14
CHIBears
12-5

TBD
Soldier Field
20°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
0
1
15
Bears
0
0
0
14
14
Spread

-3.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
356
301
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.7
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.21
Passing Yards
236
218
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
19/38(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.29
Rushing Yards
120
83
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.07
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
18%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
2
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays


Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.80
-10.21
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-15
Sack EPA
-2.23
-3.15
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
40
89
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-7.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.3

J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense


Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
3
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
11
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense


Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U

Bears
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
6-4
O/U