GBPackers
3-4
17
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
027
BUFBills
5-1
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
3
7
17
Bills
7
17
3
0
27
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
369
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.16
Passing Yards
190
216
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.02
Rushing Yards
208
153
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
6.7
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
7
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.36
-7.40
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-2
Sack EPA
-2.20
-1.11
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
58
35
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-2.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+258
Home nfelo
1,703
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+57.2
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+36.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.2
Away QB Adjustment
-10.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Bills Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
9
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U