GBPackers
6-0
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
61°F
9 mph
29
DENBroncos
6-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
61°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
3
0
10
Broncos
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
140
500
Total Plays
46
63
Yards / Play
3.0
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.26
Passing Yards
50
--
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
2.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.55
Rushing Yards
90
160
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.35
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-5.18
--
Penalties
2
11
Penalty Yards
--
93
Penalty EPA
--
-12.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+42.8
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.8
Away Bye Adj
-48.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-36.0
Home QB Adjustment
-25.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-37.6
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-25.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
8
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
10
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
8
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Broncos Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19
EPA
EPA / Play
26
13
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
10
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
14
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U