GBPackers
3-2
31
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
12 mph
3
CLEBrowns
1-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
21
3
7
31
Browns
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
460
139
Total Plays
63
52
Yards / Play
7.3
2.7
EPA / Play
+0.29
-0.26
Passing Yards
--
81
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
12/29(41%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.8
EPA / Pass
+0.85
-0.59
Rushing Yards
202
58
Rush Attempts
41
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
12
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
55%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.78
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.41
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
70
40
Penalty EPA
-13.58
-5.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model72.0%
Spread Pick
Browns+9.0
Expected Value
+20.2%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
-8.8
Final Difference
-163.8
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
5
29
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Browns Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
15
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
5
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
15
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
22
1
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
28
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-3-4
O/U