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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ buccaneers week 3, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-1
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0
12
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
0
0
14
Buccaneers
3
0
3
6
12

Spread

GB logo
+1

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
315
285
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.15
Passing Yards
248
251
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.18
Rushing Yards
67
34
Rush Attempts
25
14
Yards / Rush
2.7
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-8.77
-7.26
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-20
Sack EPA
-1.77
-4.70
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-4.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model59.8%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
69.2
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Value
Ptile
11/21
10.6
97
11/28
6.7
90
12/12
7.8
93
12/19
4.5
82
12/25
5.2
84
01/02
7.3
92
01/09
-1.9
39
01/22
-4.6
21
09/11
-6.8
10
09/18
2.0
68
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
12/05
8.3
93
12/12
10.1
96
12/19
-8.2
7
12/26
1.9
67
01/02
6.0
87
01/09
8.8
94
01/16
1.7
66
01/23
-1.1
44
09/11
-1.8
39
09/18
-2.1
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15

EPA

EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
25
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
32
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
24
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
24
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-3
L
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/12
15
W
W
O
12/19
1
W
L
O
12/25
2
W
L
U
01/02
27
W
W
O
01/09
-7
L
L
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-16
L
L
U
09/18
17
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
6
W
W
O
12/19
-9
L
L
U
12/26
26
W
W
U
01/02
4
W
L
O
01/09
24
W
W
O
01/16
16
W
W
O
01/23
-3
L
L
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U