GBPackers
1-1
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
012
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
0
0
14
Buccaneers
3
0
3
6
12
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
285
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.15
Passing Yards
248
251
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.18
Rushing Yards
67
34
Rush Attempts
25
14
Yards / Rush
2.7
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-8.77
-7.26
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-20
Sack EPA
-1.77
-4.70
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-5.63
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model59.9%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-1.0
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
69.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
25
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
14
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
32
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
24
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U