GBPackers
10-4
20
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
7 mph
3
TBBuccaneers
2-12
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
0
10
20
Buccaneers
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-12
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
109
Total Plays
72
47
Yards / Play
6.0
2.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.45
Passing Yards
310
93
Comp/Att
31/40(78%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.61
Rushing Yards
121
16
Rush Attempts
31
14
Yards / Rush
3.9
1.1
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
6
Passing 1st downs
17
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
46%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
25%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.75
-5.38
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-8
-54
Sack EPA
-5.75
-10.37
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
30
Penalty EPA
-3.15
-2.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market83.8%
Model81.4%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+12.0
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-224
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
-1.1
Final Difference
-256.4
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
11
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
18
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U