GBPackers
10-5
33
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
07
ARICardinals
10-5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
4
7
0
25
Cardinals
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
187
Total Plays
64
45
Yards / Play
5.4
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.42
Passing Yards
236
--
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.48
Rushing Yards
109
48
Rush Attempts
34
14
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.42
-16.90
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
+1.67
--
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
76
Penalty EPA
--
-5.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
5
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
1
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U