GBPackers
11-5
45
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
051
ARICardinals
10-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
14
21
45
Cardinals
17
7
14
7
45
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
493
531
Total Plays
67
57
Yards / Play
7.4
9.3
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.36
Passing Yards
403
375
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
29/33(88%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
11.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.61
Rushing Yards
90
156
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.8
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
30
Passing 1st downs
17
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
5
Red Zone %
83%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
5
5
Red Zone Attempts
6
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-16.02
-6.86
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-19
-4
Sack EPA
-11.84
-0.97
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
76
56
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-7.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-33.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-64.0
Final Difference
-44.0
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
3
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
5
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
1
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U