GBPackers
7-0
45
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
10 mph
38
LACChargers
4-3
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
9
7
3
14
33
Chargers
7
10
7
14
38
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
460
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
6.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.09
Passing Yards
232
375
Comp/Att
21/26(81%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.05
Rushing Yards
136
85
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
10
20
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
60%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-20.49
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-4.77
-2.90
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
33
64
Penalty EPA
-6.52
-9.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-124
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,688
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.8
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+27.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
16
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Chargers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13
EPA
EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
12
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U