GBPackers
3-1
13
TBD
FedExField
72°F
016
WASCommanders
2-2
TBD
FedExField
72°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
7
3
3
0
0
13
Commanders
0
3
0
10
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
373
Total Plays
67
75
Yards / Play
6.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.15
Passing Yards
270
322
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
26/49(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.06
Rushing Yards
157
51
Rush Attempts
17
21
Yards / Rush
9.2
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
15%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.03
-0.09
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-23
-35
Sack EPA
-4.90
-7.00
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
63
28
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-3.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
12
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
11
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
4
13
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
19
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U