GBPackers
3-1
35
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
2-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
6
6
3
14
29
Cowboys
7
14
0
10
31
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
408
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.18
Passing Yards
182
245
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.14
Rushing Yards
160
163
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.37
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.36
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-39
-6
Sack EPA
-4.17
-1.14
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
38
70
Penalty EPA
+4.05
-5.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
9
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
28
25
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
5
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U