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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ cowboys week 19, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
9-8
48
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
32
DALCowboys
12-5
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
14
7
42
Cowboys
0
7
9
16
32

Spread

GB logo
+7

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
415
514
Total Plays
54
91
Yards / Play
7.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.49
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
387
Comp/Att
16/21(76%)
41/60(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+1.14
-0.06
Rushing Yards
143
127
Rush Attempts
33
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
22
37
Passing 1st downs
11
25
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
60%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.16
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-5.78
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
66
48
Penalty EPA
-6.71
-3.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+248
Home nfelo
1,671
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+62.1
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+29.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
211.5
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.9
Value
Ptile
11/05
-0.6
45
11/12
-0.3
46
11/19
2.8
69
11/23
8.3
94
12/03
6.2
88
12/11
-1.9
37
12/17
3.9
75
12/24
4.5
78
12/31
8.5
95
01/07
7.3
92
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
11/05
4.2
77
11/12
14.0
100
11/19
3.0
69
11/23
9.7
97
11/30
4.8
80
12/10
0.9
55
12/17
-5.0
20
12/24
1.9
62
12/30
1.3
58
01/07
9.0
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
5
9
EPA / Pass
2
7
EPA / Rush
14
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
17
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28

EPA

EPA / Play
2
25
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
7
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
12
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
17
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/23
7
W
W
O
12/03
8
W
W
O
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/17
-14
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
O
01/07
8
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-5
L
L
O
11/12
32
W
W
O
11/19
23
W
W
P
11/23
35
W
W
O
11/30
6
W
L
O
12/10
20
W
W
U
12/17
-21
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
L
U
12/30
1
W
L
U
01/07
28
W
W
O