GBPackers
6-8
26
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
45°F
14 mph
20
MIADolphins
8-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
45°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
3
7
6
26
Dolphins
10
10
0
0
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
376
Total Plays
65
45
Yards / Play
4.6
8.4
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.19
Passing Yards
222
294
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
11.8
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.04
Rushing Yards
79
82
Rush Attempts
25
18
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
14%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
7
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.00
-16.99
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-16
Sack EPA
-3.02
-2.72
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
62
Penalty EPA
--
-7.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+48.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+45.7
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
-23.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.6
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
22
24
Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U