GBPackers
4-6
27
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
47°F
7 mph
13
PHIEagles
5-5
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
47°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
3
10
27
Eagles
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
292
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
5.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
211
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.10
Rushing Yards
74
81
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
71%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.70
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-4.63
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
51
42
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.6
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.6
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
7
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
8
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
25
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U