GBPackers
4-7
33
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
24 mph
40
PHIEagles
9-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
6
3
10
33
Eagles
13
14
7
6
40
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
500
Total Plays
49
79
Yards / Play
7.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.21
Passing Yards
236
137
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.20
Rushing Yards
106
363
Rush Attempts
21
49
Yards / Rush
5.0
7.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
29
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
21
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
14%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.13
-8.35
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-16
Sack EPA
-4.67
-2.76
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-3.93
-3.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+33.0
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-12.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
16
5
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
9
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
22
17
Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
3
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U