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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ eagles week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
4-7
33
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
24 mph
40
PHIEagles
9-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
24 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
6
3
10
33
Eagles
13
14
7
6
40

Spread

PHI logo
-6

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
342
500
Total Plays
49
79
Yards / Play
7.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.21
Passing Yards
236
137
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.20
Rushing Yards
106
363
Rush Attempts
21
49
Yards / Rush
5.0
7.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.39
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
19
29
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
21
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
14%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.13
-8.35
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-16
Sack EPA
-4.67
-2.76
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-3.93
-3.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
-12.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Value
Ptile
09/18
2.0
68
09/25
3.9
80
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
1.5
63
10/16
-2.6
31
10/23
1.7
65
10/30
1.0
59
11/06
-4.7
20
11/13
4.6
83
11/17
1.7
65
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
09/11
4.1
81
09/19
9.9
96
09/25
3.9
81
10/02
-2.0
37
10/09
6.1
89
10/16
-0.7
47
10/30
5.6
88
11/03
2.1
69
11/14
2.1
69
11/20
5.0
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Packers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16

EPA

EPA / Play
16
5
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
10
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
9
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
22
17
Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Eagles logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
1
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
26
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
3
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
2
W
W
U
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/16
-17
L
L
U
10/23
-2
L
L
O
10/30
-10
L
W
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/17
-10
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/19
17
W
W
U
09/25
16
W
W
U
10/02
8
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
U
10/16
9
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
O
11/03
12
W
L
O
11/14
-11
L
L
O
11/20
1
W
L
U